Period Covered: 01 - 07 October 2019

• Shop Price deflation decelerated to 0.4% in October from -0.6% in September. This is below the 12- and 6-month average price changes of 0.2% and -0.2%, respectively.
   
• Non-Food deflation decelerated to 1.5% in October from -1.7% in September. This is below the 12- and 6-month average price declines of 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively.
   
• Food inflation accelerated to 1.6% in October from 1.1% in September. This is slightly below the 12-month average price increase of 1.7% and in line with the 6-month average price increase of 1.6%.
   
• Fresh Food inflation accelerated slightly to 0.8% in October from 0.7% in September. This is below the 12- and 6-month average price increases of 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.
   
• Ambient Food inflation accelerated to 2.7% in October up from 1.7% in September. Ambient Food is the only category for which the rate of price increases is above the 12- and 6-month average price increases of 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively.
    

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said:

“Consumers continue to benefit from lower shop prices, with October being the fifth consecutive month of decline. Non-food prices have fallen well below the 12-month average, with greater discounting taking place as retailers seek to stimulate additional sales. The year has seen relatively weak sales and retailers hope that Black Friday and Christmas will reverse this trend with the help of lower prices.”

“Rising global food prices and the higher oil prices from earlier this year will increase costs for retailers. These factors comes as the industry struggles with the burden of public policy costs, such as business rates, which is weighing heavily on the industry and keeping margins at record lows. Furthermore, while the threat of a no-deal Brexit has been pushed back, it has not gone away. To remove this threat, and the price rises that would result, the government must secure an agreement with the EU as soon as possible to give consumers and retailers the certainty they need.”

Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight at Nielsen, said:

"With an uncertain economic outlook at the start of the 'golden quarter', the industry has been working hard to stimulate demand and to keep price increases as low as possible. Seasonal ranges are now in store, and we can expect an increase in promotional activity in the run up to Christmas, which will give  shoppers further savings at the checkout. "