Our Insight & Analytics experts analysed the economic and retail trends for the three months to October and discuss behavioural trends impacting spending ahead of Black Friday and Christmas. The combination of surging energy prices, the end of government support programmes and the forthcoming tax rises has already depressed consumer sentiment. This means that households will be cautious with their discretionary spend in coming months.

Our analysis is framed within the larger economic context. Economic activity has been picking up since restrictions started lifting in the spring, but the UK’s recovery has been crippled by rising prices and shortages of labour and materials. What is the outlook for 2022? Our colleagues determined whether labour shortages and supply chain issues are likely to clear over the next year and whether the pandemic triggered a global structural change.

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