This report presents forecasts of year-on-year sales growth and inflation based on the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor series and BRC-Nielsen Shop Prices Index.

We downgraded our forecasts for 2019 for Total Sales to 0.6% (from 1.3%), 2.0% for Food (from 2.5%) and -0.6% for Non-Food (from 0.6%). Year to date (to July 2019), Total sales growth stands at 0.3%, with Food growth at 1.6% and Non-Food at -0.8%.

We expect Shop Prices to increase by 0.2% over 2019, a slight upward revision from our last forecast of 0.1%. Year to date (to July 2019), overall Shop Price inflation stands at 0.4%.