This report presents forecasts of year-on-year sales growth and inflation based on the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor series and BRC-Nielsen Shop Prices Index.

Year to date (to April 2019), Total sales growth stands at 1.5%, with Food growth at 3.0% and Non-Food at 0.2%. We maintain our previous expectations of relatively modest total sales growth at 1.3% for both 2019 and 2020. 

Year to date (to April 2019), overall Shop Price inflation stands at 0.6%, with Food inflation at 2.0% and Non-Food inflation at -0.2%. We expect Shop Prices to increase by 0.1% over 2019, a slight upward revision from our February forecast of 0.0%. This is the result of Food inflation being higher than we anticipated over the last three months. As a result, our 2019 Food inflation forecast was revised upward to 1.5%, from 1.2%. For Non-Food, we maintain our forecast of 0.6%