Economic Monitor
Brexit gloom…
The importance of certainty about the economic environment for market players cannot be overstated. Which means that the current uncertainty about the way in which the UK will leave the EU continues to weigh on the UK economy. The IMF mentioned it was reluctant to make any UK growth forecasts in light of the “substantial uncertainty.” UK business investment has been poor following the referendum, especially for an economy at full-employment; in fact, the pound amount of business investment (seasonally adjusted chained value measure) fell in Q2 and Q3 of 2018. The housing market has also cooled significantly, with prices increasing by just 0.5% over 2018, according to Nationwide, while the Bank of England reported that mortgage demand decreased in Q4 and was expected to further decline in Q1. That is likely to continue in 2019, until the Brexit deadlock will be resolved.
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