The BRC Quarterly Economic Summary provides a brief overview of the latest data produced by the BRC, including the latest economic trends and what they mean for the world of retail. They provide a non-technical look at retail sales, footfall, shop prices and vacancy data.
All data provided is from Q3 2022. For October 2022 data, please see our Retail dashboard.
Overview from the Quarterly Economic Summary:
Inflation rose again in the third quarter of 2022 to an average of 10.0% (ONS CPI), driven mainly by household bills, which rose by over 20%, but also by rising food prices, which accelerated in Q3. The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index saw an acceleration from 2.9% growth in Q2 to 5.1% in Q3. This has exacerbated the cost of living squeeze on households, and resulted in consumer confidence plummeting to new historical depths.
Retail sales (by value) picked up in the third quarter of 2022, having fallen into negative territory in Q2. This was seen across both food and non-food alike, with the latter nudging into positive growth after a very poor second quarter. However, high inflation has meant that overall sales volumes during Q2 remained negative for the second consecutive quarter, albeit slightly improved on Q2.
Looking forward:
The end to the conflict in Ukraine looks no closer than before, and further sanctions on Russian exports could see oil prices rising once again. The war is likely to keep prices of cooking oils and wheat elevated as Ukrainian production remains limited. Nonetheless, food price inflation may begin to ease as falling food commodity prices filter through the system.
The ongoing cost of living crisis is unlikely to abate. Falling real incomes will continue to limit discretionary spending and we could well see households having a ‘budget Christmas’ this year. Consequently, value ranges and energy-efficient appliances are likely to perform well.