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The BRC Quarterly Economic Summary provides a brief overview of the latest data produced by the BRC, including the latest economic trends and what they mean for the world of retail as we enter 2023. They provide a non-technical look at retail sales, footfall, shop prices and vacancy data.

All data provided is from Q4 2022. For January 2023 data, please see our Insights hub. Download the three page report for a full look at Q4 2022.

Overview of Q4 2022

    • Inflation rose again in the final quarter of 2022, however there are clear signs that this is now starting to ease. Household bills, and particularly energy prices, continue to be the fastest rising part of inflation, though food prices were catching up. Neither the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index nor the ONS Consumer Price Index show any sign that food inflation is easing. This is exacerbating the cost of living squeeze on households, causing many consumers to rein in all but essential spending.

  • Retail sales growth (by value) rose again in the fourth quarter, however, this is largely reflective of higher prices, as volume growth was negative for the third consecutive quarter, at -6.0% (ONS Retail Sales index). Larger retailers have been outperforming smaller ones since the cost of living crisis began, helped by their ability to better absorb price rises.


Looking forward:

    • Many of the inflationary pressures on the economy are starting to ease, and many of those effects should annualise in Q1 2023, meaning we should expect inflation to begin to fall. While the Ukraine war shows little sign of coming to an end, global energy prices have been falling, though it will take time for this to filter through to retailers and consumers.

  • The ongoing cost of living crisis, made worse by falling real incomes, will continue to limit discretionary spending, increasing the risk of recession in 2023. The BRC forecasts sales growth to slow to between 1.0% and 2.3% (RSM) in the first half of the year, before picking up to between 2.6% and 4.7% in the second half of 2023.