BRC – KPMG RETAIL SALES MONITOR JUNE 2017

Covering the five weeks 28 May – 01 July 2017

  • In June, UK retail sales increased by 1.2 per cent on a like-for-like basis from June 2016, when they had decreased 0.5 per cent from the preceding year.
  • On a total basis, sales rose 2.0 per cent in June, against a growth of 0.2 per cent in June 2016. This month’s growth is below the 6-month and 12-month averages, both at 1.4 per cent.
  • Over the three months to June, food sales increased 3.6 per cent on a like-for-like basis and 4.7 per cent on a total basis. This is the strongest 3-month average since February 2012, and pulls the 12-month total average growth to 2.5 per cent, the highest since December 2013.
  • Over the three-months to June, non-food retail sales in the UK increased 0.9 per cent on a like-for-like basis and increased 1.2% per cent on a total basis, above the 12-month total average growth of 0.6 per cent. This is the best 3-month average since December, and the first above 1.0 per cent of the year so far.
  • Online sales of non-food products grew 10.1 per cent in June, compared to 9.0 per cent a year earlier. Over the three-months to June, online sales of non-food products grew 8.4 per cent while in-store sales declined 0.7 per cent on a total basis and 1.2 per cent on a like-for-like basis, a better performance than the like-for-like 12-month average decline of 2.0 per cent.

 

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium

“The arrival of summer provided a welcome pick-up to sales growth in June, particularly to non- food categories which saw a reversal in fortunes after a prolonged period of sluggish growth. Leisure pursuits and activities spurred consumer spending on summer clothing, beauty products and outdoor toys, which were also boosted by gift purchases over Eid.

“The six-month average, buoyed by June’s strong performance, now paints a slightly rosier picture for retail sales. But on closer inspection the year on year numbers belie the fact that rising food prices are responsible for the main component of growth and have prompted more cautious spending towards discretionary non-food items.

“Online continues to take the lion’s share of growth, although contribution from stores increased slightly in June as it seems shoppers headed out with specific purchases in mind, rather than just to browse.

“Looking ahead, there’s a question mark over whether this spending momentum will last, as household expenditure is increasingly squeezed from rising inflation and slowing wage growth. The reality is that retailers’ efforts in absorbing mounting cost pressures into their margins are already being tested, so the Government must have the consumer front of mind as it enters the UK’s trading negotiations with the EU, to avoid any further cost increases to retailers and their customers.”

Paul Martin, UK Head of Retail, KPMG

“After a challenging month in May, retail performance in June appears to have rebounded both online and on the high street. However, whilst the sunshine may have prevailed this month, retailers would be wise to remain cautious.

“For fashion retailers the boost in sales could not have come soon enough. Following a challenging year so far, it appears the higher temperatures thankfully provided an increased interest in summer collections. Elsewhere, the sun also shone on health and beauty sales too, with the category continuing to be a top performer.

“Whilst the latest figures are definitely more favourable than last month’s, retailers must look at the bigger picture. Inflation and household debt are fuelling part of this retail growth, meanwhile the industry is undergoing significant structural changes more broadly. The retailers succeeding are those embracing change.”

Joanne Denney-Finch, Chief Executive, IGD

“According to the Met Office, England enjoyed the second equal warmest June on record. Alongside rising inflation, this helped the food and grocery sector to experience a three-month growth trend that is now at its highest since March 2013.

“The inconclusive election result has introduced further uncertainty and this will test the sector’s momentum. However, there has also been a further injection of shopper patriotism with 47 per cent saying it is very important to support British producers, up from 41 per cent last September.”