Period covered: November 24Published: December 03, 2024Read time: 1min

Scottish Retail Sales Monitor

Scottish RSM: Sales slump ahead of make-or-break Budget

Ewan MacDonald Russell, Deputy Head | Scottish Retail Consortium:

"Scottish retail sales slumped by 2.3 percent in real terms in November as the mid-month of the golden trading quarter disappointed. With retailers already reeling from the enormous bills coming out of the UK Budget and the bitter arctic weather, the poor trading performance will have alarm bells ringing for many. Omni and digital retailers can at least cling to the hope that Black Friday itself, which falls in December's reporting period, may make up a little ground. 

"Health and beauty products continue to perform well for retailers, with the now staple beauty advent calendars being popular. Sales of Christmas trees and decorations and energy-efficient products did well. However, broader technology and fashion both underperformed, a combination of consumers holding back on festive spending and the significant discounting in the run-up to Black Friday.

"Scotland's retailers are already facing a £190 million cost next year from the changes to employer National Insurance. They will be nervously looking towards Wednesday's Scottish Budget with very significant trepidation. Bluntly, consumers are already likely to see prices rise in the new year due to rising government-mandated cost pressures whilst jobs and shops are at risk. If the Scottish Government choose to increase costs further through new levies or large business rates increases, it's Scotland's shoppers who are likely to face the price in 2025."

Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer | Retail and Leisure | KPMG:

“Along with the cold snap at the end of the month, retail sales also went into minus numbers for November.

“An upturn in health product buying also signalled that the winter months had arrived, with food and drink the only other category to see sales growth.

“While the majority of November’s data tells a disappointing tale for the retail sector, this reporting didn’t include Black Friday week, so the hope for Scotland’s retailers is that consumers were being savvy shoppers and that the promotional push in the last days of the month saw held-back consumer spend materialise and mitigate what is otherwise a disappointing month.  If not, then we may see some retailers launching Christmas sales early.”