Shop Price Index

Non-food deflation intensifies

  • Harvir Dhillon avatar
    Harvir Dhillon Economist
  • Kris Hamer avatar
    Kris Hamer Director of Insight | BRC

Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium:

September was a good month for bargain hunters as big discounts and fierce competition pushed shop prices further into deflation. Shop Price inflation is now at its lowest level in over three years, with monthly prices dropping in seven of the last nine months. This was driven by non-food, with Furniture and Clothing showing the biggest drops in inflation as retailers tried to entice shoppers back. Food inflation edged up slightly as poor harvests in key producing regions led to higher prices for cooking oils and sugary products.

Easing price inflation will certainly be welcomed by consumers, but ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate change, and government-imposed regulatory costs could all reverse this trend. Retail faces a disproportionate tax burden compared to other industries and Government must take decisive action in the upcoming Budget and introduce a 20% Retail Rates Corrector - a 20% adjustment to bills for all retail properties - to level the playing field. This will allow retailers to continue to offer the best possible prices to their customers while opening shops, protecting jobs and unlocking investment.

Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ:

With non-food prices in deflation, this will help shoppers as they plan their household budgets for the rest of the year, and the slight increase in food inflation is indicative of shop price inflation stabilising closer to the long-term range. Even so, retailers will still need to focus on driving demand with attractive promotions over the next few weeks.

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