Weather to Shop
Differences in temperature, are a good predictor of growth in Non-Food sales growth,
but only at certain times of the year.
While some periods, particularly the Christmas season, show little relationship
with the weather others are highly sensitive to temperature. During the Summer to
Autumn transition, nearly half of the variation in weekly sales growth from year to
year over this period can be accounted for by differences in temperature between
years. The analysis implies that for each degree warmer the first week of September is
relative to the previous year, the rate of growth of Non-Food sales is reduced by 1.1%,
equivalent to around £40m of sales.