Labour has secured a significant majority in the 2024 General Election, with Keir Starmer expected to take the keys to Number 10 this lunchtime. But what next for the new government?

Firstly, let’s take a look at the results. Although a handful of seats are still to declare at the time of writing, Labour will be taking a massive majority – of near-1997 proportions – into the new Parliament. The party has gained some 211 seats, with a majority of about 170, taking a number of safe Tory seats and enjoying a barnstorming result in Scotland, where the SNP only held onto nine seats. The Conservatives appear to have suffered their worst result in terms of seats won on record, leaving the new opposition on just a nudge over 120 seats. Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems had a good night, adding more than 60 seats to their 2019 haul, whilst the Greens and Reform – who came third in terms of national vote share – each managed to pick up four seats.

Whilst Labour figures will undoubtedly be in a jubilant mood this morning, a quick glance under the headline result we’re seeing today shows a more complex picture in terms of voter preference. Firstly, turnout is on track to be the lowest for two decades, at 59.8% - almost 10 points lower than 2019. Whilst this could partly be ascribed to the timing of the election – in the height of summer, when plenty of people will be away – many pundits are also pointing to fatigue and general disengagement with politics, within parts of the electorate. Whatever the reasons, the vote share shows a more nuanced picture. Labour managed just over one-third of the national vote to take 412 seats, with the Tories securing 23.7% for their 121. With Reform (14.3%), the Lib Dems (12.2%) and the Greens (6.8%) all having a strong showing at the polls, it will be interesting to see what influence their MPs will have on the new government’s policy over the course of the next Parliament.

What comes next? We have a handy timeline of key events here. Rishi Sunak has resigned as Conservative leader, and will fully step down once the arrangements for a leadership contest are in place: expect things to move quickly here, with the party aiming to appoint a new leader before the King's Speech on 17 July. Keir Starmer will move in, delivering his first speech to the nation as Prime Minister. We expect a raft of ministerial appointments, starting today and continuing over the weekend into next week. The House of Commons will return on 9 July, for the swearing in of MPs and the election of the Speaker.

All eyes then turn to the State Opening of Parliament, and the King’s Speech – which sets out the legislative programme the new government intends to pursue in the next parliamentary session – which takes place on 17 July. We might well see a new criminal justice bill, containing a standalone offence for assaulting a retail worker, alongside legislation to reform planning policy, establish GB Energy and on workers’ rights, where we understand that Labour will be undertaking full consultation with businesses. Parliament will then take a shortened Summer Recess, rising on 1 August before returning on 2 September. We then move straight into Budget and Party Conference territory, with the new Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to deliver her first fiscal event no sooner than mid-September. It remains to be seen whether she will aim to do so before Party Conferences at the end of September, or once Parliament has returned, in mid-October. We will consult members as we pull our submission together in the coming weeks. 

We will also be engaging extensively with the new government, opposition and other main parties. In addition to picking up where we left out with existing relationships, we’ll also be reaching out to new Secretaries of State and Ministers to set out retail’s potential to support policy objectives and priorities and request intro meetings. We’ll also be engaging with backbenchers, meeting, providing briefings and organising visits to member sites, to introduce them to retail ahead of our Parliamentary Reception this October. We’ll be keeping you up to date through the Corporate Affairs Community, and will be covering our post-election activity at this month’s Corporate Affairs meeting at 11am on 25 July – if you’d like to join, please contact tom.mccarthy@brc.org.uk for the invite.